Play Ball, Blue Jays

Article first published as Play Ball, Blue Jays on Technorati. 

The Toronto Blue Jays will not win the World Series in 2011.

As safe bets go, that one has to rank up there with Gary Busey never being elected President of the United States. Or a Michael Bay movie having explosions. These are lightweight predictions from the Obvious Nostradamus. Which, by the way, is a great rap name, for anyone interested.

The Jays are trapped in a division where the deck is perennially stacked against them. For years, it was a two-horse race; the Yankees or Red Sox could reliably be expected to take the title. Now the Rays are considered a legitimate threat and even the Orioles seem to be making strides in the right direction. Nowhere else in the league will you find this caliber of talent grouped together.

It’s not as if you could call the Jays a bad team. Even with the loss of veterans like Vernon Wells and Lyle Overbay, they still appear to be an improved squad, with plenty of undetermined potential. Last year, expectations were exceeded after winning 85 games, a feat that departing manager Cito Gaston could hang his hat on in the first post-Halladay season, and that new skipper John Farrell will have a hard time duplicating.

The big discovery, of course, was Jose Bautista, who lead the league with 54 home runs and was awarded both the Hank Aaron and Silver Slugger awards. Here was a guy that had been traded in 2008 to the Blue Jays from the Pirates in exchange for a player to be named later and had never hit more than 16 home runs in a year. That kind of turnaround does not happen without the guidance of returning hitting coach Dwayne Murphy, who helped the entire team become the league’s home run champions in 2010.

Because of the success of Bautista, expectations are understandably high for the array of new acquisitions by general manager Alex Anthopoulos. Speed has not been a large part of Toronto’s arsenal in recent years, however Rajai Davis now provides them with a legitimate lead-off hitter and base stealer, having nabbed 50 with Oakland last year. Aging power threat Juan Rivera hopes to join the home run party, while reliever Frank Francisco becomes part of a bullpen badly in need of a closer.

All optimism aside, the sheer number of changes in the Jays’ roster translates to greater uncertainty. Young catcher J.P. Arencibia has shown promising signs of growth, but is now tasked with making the difficult leap to the major league level. The starting rotation is fairly young and untested across the board, especially young prospect Kyle Drabek, who has large shoes to fill, indeed, if he is to is to live up to the legacy of both his father Doug and Roy Halladay, the man for whom he was dealt to Toronto.

Ultimately, the fate of the 2011 squad may hinge on two former All-Stars both coming off underwhelming years: Aaron Hill and Adam Lind. If they are able to rebound by putting up the good numbers they have before, there could exist the remote possibility of contending for the wild card.

But I wouldn’t bet on it.